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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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