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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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