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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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