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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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