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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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