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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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