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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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