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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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