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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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