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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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