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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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