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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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