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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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