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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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