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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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