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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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