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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
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PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
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Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
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