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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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