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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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