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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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