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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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