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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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