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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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