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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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