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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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