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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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