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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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