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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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