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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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