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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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