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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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