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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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