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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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