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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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