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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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