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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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