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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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