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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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