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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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