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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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