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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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