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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
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Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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