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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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