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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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