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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
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