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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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