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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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