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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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