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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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