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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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