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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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