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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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