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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Monday, 26 April 21
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Tuesday, 20 April 21
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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