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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
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Monday, 26 April 21
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Tuesday, 20 April 21
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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