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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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