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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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