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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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