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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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