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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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