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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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