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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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