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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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