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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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