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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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