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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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