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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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